2022/03/30
With progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, U.S. crude futures traded at below $100 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since March 17, and lost more than 8 percent in the past two sessions. However, the United States expressed doubts about Russia's withdrawal of troops and planned to expand the scope of sanctions with its allies. In addition, investors cautiously assessed the possibility of signing a formal ceasefire agreement in the short term; oil prices rebounded from lows and rose above $150 a barrel in Asian trading.
U.S. President Joe Biden on Tuesday said it remains to be seen whether Russia follows through with any actions to scale down its military operations in Ukraine, saying Washington and its allies will continue with solid sanctions and aid for Ukraine.
The market is also waiting on a planned meeting on Thursday by OPEC+. The group will likely stick with its strategy of a modest increase in oil output in May, several sources close to the group said, supply will remain tight. Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz stated that the oil alliance OPEC+ will leave politics out of output decisions favouring the “common good” of stabilising energy prices, not to mention that Saudi Arabia is OPEC's largest oil producer.
Shanghai's two-stage lockdown over nine days is expected to hit fuel demand in China, the world's largest oil importer, offsetting concerns about tight supply. Moreover, some Asian countries have not responded to Western calls to cut off energy exchanges with Russia, which will send oil prices to drop.
The "Wall Street Journal" reported that many Western countries are seeking to turn to Canada, Brazil and other countries to buy oil in order to replace Russian supplies. Last week, a Canadian official said local oil and gas producers could increase their daily output by 300,000 barrels. However, their export capacity was limited as overstretched railway and port networks have little additional capacity to ferry more commodities. Earlier, environmentalists have forced Canadian and U.S. governments to scrap plans to build pipelines that would enable Canada to export more oil.
俄羅斯和烏克蘭和平談判有進展，紐約期油隔晚曾經跌穿每桶100美元，是3月17日以來首次，過去兩個交易日累跌逾百分之8。但美國對俄羅斯會否撤軍表示懷疑，並與盟國計劃擴大制裁範圍，加上憂慮俄烏未能短期內簽訂正式停火協議，油價從低位反彈，在亞洲市重上每桶150美元以上。
美國總統拜登表示拭目以待，觀察俄方是否遵循他們的建議，會密切注視事態發展，並繼續實施嚴厲的制裁。
市場觀望油組星期四的會議，有接近油組的消息人士指，油組五月仍傾向小規模增產，預料供應仍然緊張。油組最大產油國，沙特阿拉伯能源大臣阿卜杜勒阿齊茲出席研討會時，表明開會不受政治因素干預。
分析認為，上海分區「封控」，會削弱中國的能源需求，加上部分亞洲國家未有響應西方呼籲，切斷與俄羅斯的能源往來，不利油價。
《華爾街日報》報道，西方多國尋求轉向加拿大、巴西等購買石油，取代俄羅斯供應。上周有加拿大官員表示，當地石油和天然氣生產商，每日產量可增加30萬桶，但出口能力受限，早前有環保團體促使美加兩國，放棄建設新的輸油管，目前加拿大不少鐵路和港口容量接近飽和。
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